CECIL HURT: Will the Tide roller coaster finally stop

Aug. 1 is not a national holiday. For college football fans, it should be — if only for the relief it provides from the silliness of the offseason.

College football teams will start practice this week, providing actual news for the first time in seven months. Spring football does provide a brief hiatus, but not enough. Recruiting provides another, and fills much of January and February.

But from about mid-April on, hard news is just that: Hard to come by. The down time is necessary for the players, of course. It creates a news vacuum — especially in the new era of media. The Internet, in particular, demands a constant stream of information. Thus the words of Lane Kiffin, or the summer activities of Tim Tebow assume an importance that, no offense to either individual, is exaggerated.

We get greatest coaching lists, and historical look-backs, and fans debate them vigorously. But they are — when you get right down to it — filler. That’s over now. On Wednesday it’s time to start talking real football.

In Alabama’s case, there are questions to be answered as the 2009 fall season. But, as has been the case for more than a decade now, the first question is whether, at long last, the Crimson Tide can break an alarming pattern. Since 1996, every time the Crimson Tide posts a 10-win season, it follows it up with a losing season.

A “rebuilding year” of slightly above .500 comes next, then a highly successful year and then the pattern repeats itself. The 1996 season is not an arbitrary starting point, either. It was a watershed in two ways — it marked the departure of Gene Stallings, the last truly firm hand on the Alabama anchor before Nick Saban arrived, and it was the last season before NCAA sanctions began to have a true effect on Alabama’s roster depth.

I know the general reaction to any suggestion that Alabama might have a losing season is “that is stupid.” I don’t think it will happen, either. It is worth pointing out that no one thought it would happen in 1997 or (especially) 2000 either. The turmoil around the team in 2003 made accurate prediction impossible (although no one expected 4-9, either.) Most people understood 2006 would be a rebuilding year, although Alabama’s offensive struggles and lack of improvement were worrisome enough to prompt a coaching change.

That change brought Nick Saban — and wild optimism around the Crimson Tide program. To this point, though, Saban’s teams have simply followed the cycle. While many Alabama fans thirst for a national championship under Saban, I’ve always felt that the first true measure of his tenure would be his ability to snap the recurring three-year slump.

As Saban himself as said on infinite occasions, it’s a process. Alabama fans love to quote that when the team wins, but many don’t seem to realize that it applies when the team loses. Part of that process is stabilization.

The championships may or may not come, but the best way to get them is to be consistently good. That means good enough to win nine or 10 games every season and, when talent and luck are both present, to be in the title mix in December. That’s the way the big-time programs of the past decade — Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Ohio State — have done it.

Alabama fans loved the chance to proclaim, in 2008, that it belonged in that company once more. But the next step is to prove that it can consistently stay there. That’s why the 2009 season is far more intriguing. I don’t think that Alabama will backslide below the .500 mark. Nothing in Saban’s past indicates that will happen. But it will be interesting to see if the roller coaster finally comes to a stop.

Reach Cecil Hurt at cecil.hurt@tuscaloosanews.com or 205-722-0225.