Top-ranked teams holding a slight edge in matchups against No. 2 opponents

TUSCALOOSA | In college football polls, one is better than two, but not always.

Alabama is ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press poll heading into the BCS National Championship Game against No. 2 Texas. Nearly every national pundit on record predicting a winner has gone with the Crimson Tide, which is favored by the oddsmakers by five points.

Alabama is coming off a sound win over the previous No. 1 team, Florida, and its star running back just won UA’s first Heisman Trophy. If momentum was something tangible — something to hold in your hand — it could be picked up by the barrel load in Tuscaloosa.

Texas, meanwhile, eked out a last-second, literally, win over a feisty Nebraska team in its last outing in the Big 12 title game.

It all presumably points to a sound Crimson Tide win over the Longhorns in Rose Bowl Stadium.

And history is on the side of the No. 1-ranked team. The good news for Alabama is No. 1 bests No. 2 more than half the time.

Overall, the No. 1 team in The Associated Press poll has met the second-ranked team 43 times, winning 58 percent of the games. The No. 1 team is 24-17-2.

The bad news for Alabama fans is when the top two teams in the AP poll meet at a neutral site, mostly in postseason games, the No. 2 team fares better. At neutral sites, the No. 1 team is 13-12-1, a winner 52 percent of the time.

More recently, when the AP No. 1 and No. 2 teams squared off in the BCS title game — which didn’t happen after the 2000, ’01 and ’03 seasons since the BCS uses a tabulation of human and computer polls to rank teams — the series is dead even at four games apiece.

In fact, the BCS No. 2 team is 6-5 against the BCS No. 1 team in title games since the first game after the 1998 season and the BCS No. 2 team has won the last four games. Yes, Florida was ranked second in the BCS before last season’s championship game.

The reason the No. 2 fairs so well against the top ranked team is obvious. They’re both darn good. Also, as previously stated, they mostly meet on a neutral field, negating home-field advantage.

“I think you’re really splitting hairs at that level,” said Gary Danielson, commentator for CBS Sports. “You could make the argument that in most years for teams No. 1 through No. 8 there’s not that much of a difference.”

Despite recent momentum for the Crimson Tide, Alabama and Texas have jostled in the AP Poll all season, indicating pollsters view the two teams over a longer timeline as fairly even.

Out of the 15 AP Top 25 polls this season, Texas ranked ahead of Alabama nine weeks. The Longhorns began the season second, then dropped below Alabama to third for three weeks in October before topping Alabama at second again for the first two weeks of November.

Alabama has been ranked ahead of Texas since the poll of Nov. 15, and, to boot, has been ranked first twice this season. Texas has never been No. 1 this season.

Also, this will be the third time the Crimson Tide has played in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 match-up in the past two seasons, going 1-1 in those games.

Alabama was ranked No. 1 when it faced second-ranked Florida in the 2008 Southeastern Conference Championship Game. In this season’s SEC title game, the rankings were flip-flopped.

In both games, the No. 2 team won.

Danielson said those games show that a match-up between the top two teams still carries weight, even in the era of the BCS when top-two showdowns are expected at the end of the season.

In 2008, Danielson said he was trumped in planning conversations about how to bill the SEC title game.

“I said it doesn’t make any difference because the game is big because the game is big, but our ratings people at CBS said, no, just the fact that the two numbers are one and two playing each is worth an extra ratings point because people will turn to it because it has that extra little jazz to it,” Danielson said. “Historically, it means a lot.”

Before the BCS formed in 1998, games between No. 1 and No. 2 were more spread out.

Through history, Alabama is 3-2 in games pitting AP No. 1 vs. No. 2. In all but the 2008 SEC title game, Alabama was ranked second by AP pollsters.

Texas is 4-0 in top-two games.

The last time the Longhorns played in this type game was the 2006 Rose Bowl when, ranked second, Texas upset heavily favored and No. 1 Southern Cal.

This year, Danielson said Texas can still draw some motivation from the attention paid to Alabama.

“You get a sense of focus as an athlete against a team that everybody thinks is better,” he said. “It’s just almost survival instincts because you don’t want to get embarrassed.

“You get tired of hearing about the other team, and it seems like if this game was played the next weekend it might not be a factor. But with the game being 30 days away or whatever it is, I think it becomes a factor in the football game.”

Jay Barker, quarterback for UA’s 1992 national championship team and co-host of the “Opening Drive” on WJOX, said that Alabama team did draw motivation from being ranked second and from being the underdog going into the Sugar Bowl.

“I never think emotions play a huge part during the game itself,” Barker said. “What happens, if you have some emotion before the game, during those weeks when it’s tough to prepare, it kind of gives you that extra momentum to want to prepare and get out there and work harder.”

Barker, however, said the two games aren’t that comparable. Miami, UA’s opponent in that Sugar Bowl, was the overwhelming favorite and it’s players were cocky, Barker said.

Although this Alabama teams comes in heavily decorated, the Tide and Longhorns are more evenly matched, he said. Plus, UA coach Nick Saban won’t let his players get big heads, Barker said.

“(The coaches) will be able to temper all that and keep these guys mentally focused,” Barker said. “I really have a lot of confidence they won’t let the media put these guys in that role.”

Reach Adam Jones at adam.jones@tuscaloosanews.com or 205-722-0230.